355
FXHW01 KWNH 260748
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
VALID 00Z THU 27 MAR 2025 - 00Z THU 03 APR 2025
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM NOW INTO THE WEEKEND,
INDICATING MULTIPLE DAYS OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES. STILL
EXPECT BACKGROUND FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME WINDWARD
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER SOME AREAS WHILE AT OTHER TIMES/LOCATIONS
IT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHTEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND TIME
FRAME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AROUND SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED SPREAD DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN PACIFIC
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THERE IS A GENERAL THEME FOR WINDS TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE
GFS/GEFS KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE DISTANT AND THUS ARE WEAKER WITH
WINDS OVER THE STATE. TOWARD MIDWEEK THESE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO
MOST GUIDANCE (EVEN THE GEFS) BRINGING ENHANCED FRONTAL MOISTURE
CLOSER TO OR EVEN INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
LATEST MACHINE LEARNING (ML) MODELS THAT PRODUCE QPF MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY IN KEEPING THE ENHANCED RAINFALL
SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS, AT LEAST
TO THE EXTENT OF THE 00Z CMC IF NOT THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ML MODELS
DO NOT ADD ANY CONFIDENCE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORECAST, AS THEIR
SOLUTIONS OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN PACIFIC VARY ABOUT AS MUCH AS
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THIS DRAMATIC SPREAD RECOMMENDS A
CONSERVATIVE INTERMEDIATE APPROACH FOR THE STATE'S FORECAST
SPECIFICS DURING THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAUSCH
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