201
FXHW01 KWNH 160750
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
VALID 00Z THU 17 APR 2025 - 00Z THU 24 APR 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS HAWAII AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, YIELDING LOWER MID-UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS HAWAII FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND DISRUPT THE TRADES.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WEAK AND ALLOW FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZES
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
WEST, AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ATOP THE
ISLANDS AND INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT
TIMES. PLUS THE UPPER TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO
FORM TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTER PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND PEAK ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PULL
AWAY, WHILE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL NORTH AND
ALLOWS FOR TRADES TO SLOWLY RESUME. THIS MAY BE A SOMEWHAT WET
TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LINGERS.
THEN BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR THE STATE, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE POTENTIALLY ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN.
TATE
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