604
FXHW01 KWNH 250747
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 26 APR 2025 - 00Z SAT 03 MAY 2025
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE, PLUS A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST, SHOULD PROMOTE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON AVERAGE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH
PRIMARILY WINDWARD SHOWER FOCUS. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS
ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE MAIN ISLANDS WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE CLOSES OFF A LOW THAT MAY
TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING
EASTWARD. AS FOR THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW, MACHINE LEARNING (ML)
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECENS
MEAN/00Z CMC-CMCENS MEAN (CLOSEST TO THE MAIN ISLANDS) AND FARTHER
NORTHEAST 00Z GFS. THE COMBINED EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SEA/LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL
PROMOTE A RETURN OF TRADES AND WINDWARD SHOWER FOCUS BY MID-LATE
WEEK.
RAUSCH
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