995
AWUS01 KWNH 300925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-301300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0335
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 300923Z - 301300Z
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL ABOUT 13Z WITH PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL OF 2 TO JUST OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...09Z RADAR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
SHOWED A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE PROCESS OF
OVERTAKING NEARLY A STATIONARY CELL OVER SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY
COUNTY WHERE MRMS HAS ESTIMATED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. THE
CELL FORMED ON A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS MARKING THE LEADING EDGE
OF HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AND WITHIN A RELATIVE MAX IN MLCAPE
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWING 3000 TO 3500 J/KG CENTERED OVER
KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, FLOW WAS NOTED
TO BE DIFFLUENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
LIFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS, WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF INTENSE, EFFICIENT
RAINFALL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS EMANATING FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE THE MAIN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SUBTLE AREAS OF WIND
CONVERGENCE WERE NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST THAT COULD INITIATE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL, BUT
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 2 TO 3+ IN/HR RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT. THERE IS ALSO NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR WEST-EAST SHORT
TERM TRAINING FALLING ATOP SCATTERED PORTIONS OF THE STATE THAT
HAVE RECEIVED 200 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF. OVERALL, THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN SCOPE, BUT A LOCALIZED
CONCERN WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 29689729 28889688 28269864 28089972 28260030
28830076 29190085 29380062 29499972
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