564
AWUS01 KWNH 300142
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0553
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
942 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 300141Z - 300700Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ALONG SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES IN NEW CONVECTION MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE UP ABOVE 3"/HR, LEADING TO 1-2" OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
1 HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR, OK, AND KS
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE CORES HAVE BEEN
ABOVE 2"/HR ACCORDING TO KVNX, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MRMS MEASURED
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN THE PAST 6-HRS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING A REPORTED 3.9 INCHES NEAR PIEDMONT, KS.
THESE OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THE BOUNDARIES DROP SOUTH, THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS REFLECTED BY THE SPC RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING A POOL OF 2500-3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALIGNED
WITH A RIBBON OF PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF MORE THAN 2"/HR, AND THE HRRR
15-MIN RAINFALL ACCUMULATION PRODUCT SUGGESTS RATES WILL BRIEFLY
EXCEED 3"/HR (0.75 TO 1 INCH IN 15 MINUTES). ADDITIONALLY, AS
THESE STORMS SAG SOUTH AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, THE LLJ, CURRENTLY ANALYZED VIA LOCAL VWPS TO BE FROM
THE SW AT 20 KTS, WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT THROUGH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WHILE CONCURRENTLY RESUPPLYING THE IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMICS INTO THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
WHILE THE CAMS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THE RECENT HRRR APPEARS TO BE CATCHING ON TO THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY, WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ARW/ARW2 AS WELL.
DESPITE THE LACK OF AGREEMENT, WHICH IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING THE
HREF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES, THE CURRENT RADAR COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST, AND MAY PULSE UP AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHERE THIS OCCURS, TOTAL RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE
1-2" IN LESS THAN AN HOUR, WITH LOCAL MAXIMA ABOVE 3" POSSIBLE.
THIS RAIN WILL OCCUR ATOP SOILS THAT ARE SATURATED ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO NASA SPORT FROM 7-DAY RAINFALL THAT HAS
BEEN MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL, HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST OK. ANY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ATOP THESE SOILS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY TRAINING CAN
OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD, COULD CAUSE
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37999698 37859578 37169522 36619478 36199445
35569430 35199456 35129520 35299608 35679697
36149750 36609785 37319784
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