193
AWUS01 KWNH 300701
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-301300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0555
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 300700Z - 301300Z
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THOUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE CELL
MERGERS AND LOCALIZED TRAINING SHOULD ENABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS
OF 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EVOLVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS CURRENTLY. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MCS IS
LEVERAGING MODEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT WHILE FORWARD PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LXN/LEXINGTON, NE CURRENTLY. THE ORIENTATION
OF THE CONVECTION AND ITS SPEED HAS GENERALLY LIMITED RAIN RATES
TO AROUND 1 INCH/HR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS, RESULTING IN A VERY
LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
FARTHER SOUTH, A MATURE MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COMPLEX IS LEVERAGING BOTH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT (AROUND 7.5C/KM) AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
A 30KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS WITHIN THIS COMPLEX
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER MID/UPPER STEERING FLOW AND ARE LARGELY
ELEVATED ATOP AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. SLOW MOVEMENT HAS ENABLED
SEVERAL AREAS OF 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES TO MATERIALIZE, WHICH HAS
FOSTERED ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY NEAR WICHITA
WHERE 2 INCH/HR FFG THRESHOLDS WERE NOTED.
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, THE MESO-TO-SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS THE
EVENTUAL MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS MCSS
ALONG WITH INTERMEDIATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AMID STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 2500
J/KG MLCAPE. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF 1.5-2.5 INCH/HR
RAIN RATES WILL BECOME MORE COMMON WITH TIME. THESE RATES WILL
EXCEED FFG THRESHOLDS AT TIMES - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE 1.5-2 INCH/HR THRESHOLDS WERE PREVALENT.
FFGS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO KANSAS,
POTENTIALLY POINTING TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THOSE AREAS.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 41619840 40389698 38819640 37949679 37499729
37459882 37990035 39040170 39890137 41260022
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