746
AWUS01 KWNH 300840
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-301100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0556
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
440 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 300839Z - 301100Z
SUMMARY...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR PRATT,
KS TO NEAR ENID, OK HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS. RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR HAVE BEEN
ESTIMATED IN A FEW SPOTS. THESE RATES WILL POSE AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO.
DISCUSSION...A MATURE MCS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS EXPERIENCED A
COMPLICATED EVOLUTION THIS MORNING, WITH MOST OF THE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION NOW FOCUSED ALONG A BAND FROM NEAR PRATT, KS TO NEAR
ENID, OK. THIS PORTION OF THE MCS FEATURES MAINLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THAT CONVECTION HAS STALLED ATOP EXPANDING
OUTFLOW/COLD POOL NOW OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. FURTHERMORE,
25KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW WAS INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH THE
COLD POOL TO HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WHILE ALSO LIKELY
HELPING TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE STORMS. THE
RESULT IS AN AXIS OF 1-2.5 INCH/HR RAIN RATES THAT HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IN A SIMILAR POSITION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS, WITH
MRMS-ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ALSO NOTED IN THAT
3-HOUR TIMEFRAME.
THE ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS OR SO. LATER THIS MORNING, SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW SHOULD
SLACKEN SOME AND RESULT IN REDUCED CONVERGENCE AND INFLUX OF
INSTABILITY INTO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OF THE BAND ALONG WITH LESSENING OF RAIN RATES, ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING ON THIS ANTICIPATED WEAKENING IS UNCERTAIN. IN
THE MEANTIME, 1-2.5 INCH/HR RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. FFG
THRESHOLDS ARE A BIT HIGH IN THE REGION (2.5+ INCH/HR), BUT THE
MULTI-HOUR NATURE OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUGGESTS A CONTINUED
(AND AT LEAST ISOLATED) FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH 11Z OR SO.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37769973 37549783 36139674 35699732 35889924
36649969
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