455
AWUS01 KWNH 010415
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-010814-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0565
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 010414Z - 010814Z
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TOWARD SENSITIVE
PARTS OF INDIANA THAT RECEIVED 3-11 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 24-36 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS DESPITE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. ABUNDANT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WAS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE STORMS
WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WITHIN THE CONVECTION.
AREAS OF 1-3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED PER MRMS,
WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDED LOCAL FFG THRESHOLDS AND PROMPTED
SPOTS OF LOW TO MODERATE MRMS FLASH RESPONSES.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS CLUSTER OF HEAVY-RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION WAS
MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA (NEAR
BLOOMINGTON) THAT HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 3-11 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AS A
RESULT, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT AS THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES
EASTWARD, FFG THRESHOLDS WILL BE EXCEEDED AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39848510 39498437 38818470 38088624 37888802
38178930 39328825 39588738
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