150
AWUS01 KWNH 050708
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-051215-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0593
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA, SOUTHERN MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 050707Z - 051215Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 IN/HR, WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH 12Z FROM EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THESE HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS.
DISCUSSION...AREA RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0645Z SHOWED AN UPTICK IN
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE OVER THE
PAST 60-90 MINUTES. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 850 MB WIND SPEEDS TOWARD
40 KT HAS COINCIDED WITH THE INCREASE ON CONVECTION. THE STORMS
WERE LOCATED WITHIN AN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AXIS (+2 TO +3
STANDARDIZED PW ANOMALY) WHICH EXTENDED NNE THROUGH EASTERN NE
INTO WESTERN MN, JUST AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
AND ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MN. THE STORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
(INCREASED DIFFLUENCE) AND WITHIN 500 TO 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE VIA 06Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA.
SOME FURTHER INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA THROUGH 09Z, AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENT ADVANCING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. MEAN
STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE SW AT 20-30 KT, WEAKER THAN 850 MB WINDS
OF A SIMILAR DIRECTION. THIS SETUP WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SW TO NE
TRAINING AND BRIEF BACKBUILDING OF CELLS AS THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL OF
1-2 INCHES AND SPOTTY 2-4 INCH TOTALS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 44759520 44489353 43589285 42429333 41369463
40879579 40749707 40809798 40989830 41389864
41749862 42539720 43409635
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