342
AWUS01 KWNH 050743
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-051300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0594
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 050741Z - 051300Z
SUMMARY...ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN
MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI THROUGH 13Z. TRAINING OF CELLS WILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR 1-2 IN/HR RATES AND SPOTTY 2-3 INCH TOTALS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 0720Z SHOWED A BROKEN AXIS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN WHERE A MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX WAS LOCATED. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO
EASTERN SD WITHIN A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES (VIA 07Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA). ALOFT, THE REGION RESIDED BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST THIS MORNING, AND THE VORTICITY MAX LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MN SHOULD FOLLOW NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT
ARE FORECAST, THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CARRY THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TRAINING WHICH COULD SUPPORT RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO OF 2-3
INCHES THROUGH 13Z. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT,
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTING WHERE OVERLAP OF LOW LYING OR URBAN
ENVIRONMENTS OCCURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...MPX...MQT...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 47519042 46848999 45519097 44419184 44009287
44179443 45149490 46349423 47489197
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