401
AWUS01 KWNH 051317
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0596
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PORTION OF TEXAS TRIANGLE...EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 051315Z - 051900Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ON PERIPHERY OF DYING
MCS. HIGHLY EFFICIENT WITH RATES OF 2-3"/HR POSSIBLE AND SLOW
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK IN
VICINITY. LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 3-5"
DISCUSSION...THE DYING MCC REMAINS IN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL COL
THOUGH SHEARING TOWARD THE NORTH INTO NORTHERN TX HAS BEEN NOTED,
WHILE FURTHER ELONGATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL. CIRA LPW SHOWS CORE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE
SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF
THE CYCLONE, THOUGH 850 AND ALOFT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND DUE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH,
EXTREME TOTAL PWAT VALUES UP TO 2.5" EXIST IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE IN PROXIMITY TO I-10 IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF AUSTIN. VWP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS IS
THE GREATEST MOISTURE FLUX WITH 25-30KTS OF SOUTHERLY 850-700MB
FLOW SKIRTING THE EASTERN SIDE AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONVERGENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRIANGLE NORTH OF WACO TOWARD
CLEBURNE TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH THETA-E NEAR THE SURFACE, EVEN 6C/KM LAPSE RATES REMAIN STILL
LEFT OF THE PARCEL; NARROW SKINNY/UNSTABLE PROFILES SUPPORT
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FOR ANY CELLS TO STRENGTHEN. AS SUCH,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DYING MCS HAS
TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. RATES OF 2-3"/HR SHOULD BE COMMON WITH UPDRAFTS, THOUGH
PEAK INTENSITY.
ALOFT, THE DIFFLUENT PORTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT GIVEN THE 30-40KT
EXITING JET STREAK HEADING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER W TX. HOWEVER, WEAK DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAIN
MODEST ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AS WELL THOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, THIS SLOWER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DURATION AS CELL
MOTIONS REMAIN BELOW 5/10KTS IN THE COL IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF COMPOUNDING TOTALS WITH
FOCUSED/LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE, LIKELY TO INDUCE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
HI-RES CAMS HELP TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD MOVE BACK NORTHWEST
AND WEST TO AFFECT AREAS MOST RECENTLY AFFECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE
COLORADO RIVER, BUT LOSS OF INSTABILITY/HEATING AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW MAKE THIS SEEM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW, HOWEVER, THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE TOWARD OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT ONGOING FLOODING IN THE COLORADO
BASIN MAY HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO FURTHER COMPOUND
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE NEXT 4-6HRS.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32909811 32669708 31899668 30929665 30129672
29449704 29029732 28819795 28989854 30499839
30969839 32279867
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