368
AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0597
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 051940Z - 060100Z
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PROLIFIC RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 3"/HR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO PAINT A MESSY PICTURE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER BURNET
COUNTY AND POINTS EAST TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF AUSTIN.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE MCV.
WHILE THIS IS HELPING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY ON THOSE FLANKS,
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW MODEST SURFACE-BASED HEATING
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MCV, INCLUDING IN MASON AND LLANO
COUNTIES. 3-HR RTMA SHOWS THETA-E INCREASES AND MLCAPE RISING >800
J/KG DURING THIS SAME TIME. THERE REMAINS A HEALTHY SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH TROPICAL PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 2-2.5".
THE 18Z HRRR IS SHOWING BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA
AVERAGED SOUNDINGS OVER MASON/LLANO COUNTIES SHOW VEERING WINDS AT
LOW-LEVELS WITH >2,000 MLCAPE AVAILABLE, PWATS >2.0", AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER WIND SPEEDS <10 KTS. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM
CLOUD LAYERS REMAINS OVER 14,000FT DEEP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
LOW-MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE AVERAGING ~90%. THESE
SLOW MOTIONS, PARTICULARLY NEAR MCV, WILL RESULT IN
SELF-SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PROLIFIC
RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN BURNET COUNTY WHERE MRMS 15-MINUTE ESTIMATED RAINFALL
RATES HAVE APPROACHED 1.0" IN SOME CASES, IMPLYING HOURLY RATES AS
HIGH AS 4" ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST CELLS. SOILS IN
THESE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO HANDLE 1"/HR RAINFALL RATES, LET 15
MINUTE RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 1". NOTE THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL
STILL CONTEND WITH STORMS, BUT THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD START TO SHIFT TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MCV.
THESE STORMS AND THEIR PROLIFIC RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING WITHIN
THE REGION, AS WELL AS ANY ONGOING CLEANUP AND SEARCH/RESCUE
EFFORTS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AS STORMS EAT AWAY AT THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE
MCV GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31659890 31489768 31389735 30929702 30409702
29729736 29379823 29549881 29929912 30409987
31369983
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