195
FXHW01 KWNH 250752
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 26 JUL 2025 - 00Z SAT 02 AUG 2025
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY. TRADES COULD EASE
EVEN LIGHTER AROUND SUNDAY, BUT MEANWHILE BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT,
POSSIBLY INCREASING SHOWERS.
INTO NEXT WEEK, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL
SPREAD REGARDING HOW CLOSE THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW GETS TO THE
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF AND MANY EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE THE FARTHEST
NORTH AND BRING THE RAIN SHIELD CLOSE TO AT LEAST THE BIG ISLAND.
THE GFS/GEFS SUITE MAINTAIN A STRAIGHT WESTERLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE
STATE THOUGH, AND RECENT CMC RUNS ARE IN BETWEEN. THE EC-AIFS
MACHINE LEARNING MODEL LOOKS CLOSER TO THE GFS TYPE GUIDANCE, SO
FEEL SKEPTICAL OF THE ECMWF/ECENS GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHEN WINDS CLOSER TO BREEZY LEVELS. WINDS MAY STAY BREEZY
INTO LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH DECREASING MOISTURE.
TATE
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