005  
AWUS01 KWNH 191321  
FFGMPD  
MDZ000-VAZ000-191918-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0958  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
920 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA/FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA  
PENINSULA  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 191318Z - 191918Z  
 
SUMMARY...A FOCUSED AREAS OF NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION HAS  
PRODUCED SPOTS OF 2.5-5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF  
3-5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED/ISOLATED INUNDATION IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z.  
 
DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A  
RELATIVELY FOCUSED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST EAST OF A  
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR PHF/WILLIAMSBURG, WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES  
MAINTAINING MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AGAINST A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS  
MUCH OF VIRGINIA. WEAK/MODEST KINEMATICS WERE SUPPORTING SLOW  
CELL MOVEMENT, AND SPOTS OF 1-3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES WERE BEING  
ESTIMATED PER MRMS WITH THE MOST DOMINANT ACTIVITY. A FEW FLOOD  
IMPACTS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE ACCOMACK, VA AREA THIS  
MORNING.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS FAIRLY  
LOCALIZED, THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF MESO-TO-SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES  
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL IS A BIT CONCERNING. HEAVY RAINFALL  
COULD PERSIST IN THIS REGIME THROUGH 19Z, WITH ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCH  
RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVERGENCE  
AXIS/LOW SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE WESTWARD  
THROUGH MIDDAY, WHICH MAY TEMPER THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EVENTUALLY.  
LOCAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY WORSEN WHILE HEAVY  
RAINFALL PERSISTS.  
 
COOK  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...  
 
ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...  
 
LAT...LON 38167536 37587545 36727585 37217686 37937655  
38137597  
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