276  
AWUS01 KWNH 191733  
FFGMPD  
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-192332-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0959  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
132 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARIZONA, PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 191732Z - 192332Z  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY  
THROUGH 00Z/6P MDT, WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN  
LOW-LYING SPOTS AND NEAR BURN SCARS.  
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT  
INSOLATION LEADING TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
FAVORED RIDGELINES/TERRAIN - ESPECIALLY IN NEW MEXICO. THE STORMS  
ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (0.75-1.3 INCH PW VALUES) FOR WETTING  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. KINEMATIC FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST SLOW AND  
AT TIMES ERRATIC MOVEMENT WITH ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. MODELS  
AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS AND BEYOND.  
 
AS CELLS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, AREAS OF 0.5-1 INCH/HR  
RAIN RATES WILL BECOME MORE COMMON. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST  
CONCENTRATION OF HIGHER RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT/PW VALUES  
ARE HIGHEST. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ATOP SENSITIVE  
LOW-LYING AREAS AND BURN SCARS THAT COULD ENHANCE RUNOFF LOCALLY.  
 
MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE HREF) DEPICT THAT THE PEAK CONVECTIVE  
THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME, WITH SLOW  
WEAKENING EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO.  
 
COOK  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...  
 
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...  
 
LAT...LON 36840536 35890489 33770473 32920503 31800612  
31710819 31370831 31371092 31641155 32631118  
33940991 34770860 35890735 36760636  
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