780  
AWUS01 KWNH 191826  
FFGMPD  
MOZ000-KSZ000-192322-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0961  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
223 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 191822Z - 192322Z  
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF 1-2  
INCH/HR RAIN RATES THROUGH 00Z/7P CDT TONIGHT. AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN  
THE MANHATTAN/EMPORIA REGION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THE STORMS  
ARE EMBEDDED IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE (2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE)  
ENVIRONMENT, WITH 1.8 INCH PW VALUES SUPPORTING HEAVIER RAINFALL  
IN WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. THE CELLS ARE LIKELY BENEFITING FROM  
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA (OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN  
KANSAS) PROVIDING ASCENT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT  
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION WAS ALSO LIKELY PROVIDING A FOCUS  
FOR UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA.  
 
KINEMATICS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SLOW AND AT TIMES ERRATIC STORM  
MOTIONS ALONG WITH 1-2 INCH/HR RAIN RATES BENEATH DOMINANT  
ACTIVITY. THE PROXIMITY OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND  
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (FROM 7C/KM LAPSE RATES ALOFT) SUGGESTS THAT  
THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM ONE OR TWO SMALL LINEAR  
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT PROPAGATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD US 50 AND  
US 400 NEAR/EAST OF WICHITA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO. FLASH  
FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY - ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE FFG THRESHOLDS ARE  
AROUND 1 INCH/HR AND COULD READILY BECOME EXCEEDED. SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER RAIN RATES MAY BE NEEDED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT FOR ANY  
APPRECIABLE FLASH FLOOD RISK.  
 
COOK  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...SGF...TOP...  
 
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...  
 
LAT...LON 39249529 37479456 37079656 37439953 39129912  
 
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