842
FXHW01 KWNH 050824
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 06 SEP 2025 - 00Z SAT 13 SEP 2025
..WATCHING CURRENT HURRICANE KIKO FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO HAWAII
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE,
FOR ONLY MODEST SHOWER COVERAGE OVER HAWAII. TRADES SHOULD STAY
AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO MONDAY, AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE AND LEAD TO
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWERS WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING.
GUIDANCE IS QUITE WELL CLUSTERED FOR THIS SCENARIO, BOLSTERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST INTERESTS WILL TURN TO KIKO AND ITS APPROACH WESTWARD
TOWARD THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY. KIKO IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TO WEAKEN FROM MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY THEN. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NHC/CPHC FORECAST TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK. GENERALLY, KIKO PROXIMITY
OFFERS POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT WIND/WAVE AND A FLASH FLOODING THREATS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD REACH OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
SCHICHTEL
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