576
AWUS01 KWNH 081305
FFGMPD
KSZ000-081700-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1061
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 081303Z - 081700Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 2-5" POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD PERSIST.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS OVER I-70 JUST WEST OF SALINA.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS AIDING MOIST RETURN FLOW
UP THE PLAINS WITH A LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE OF SOUTHERLY
AT THE SURFACE AND 20-30KT 850 SWLY FLOW. THIS IS RESULTING IN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND UPWIND PROPAGATION ALLOWING FOR REPEATING
HEAVY RAIN.
DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH PW AROUND 1.3" AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-50S OVER
CENTRAL KS. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICENT WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 1000
J/KG UPSTREAM WHICH QUICKLY DROPS OFF TO THE EAST (BEFORE TOPEKA).
HI-RES FORECASTS ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW TO PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THE NORMAL DECREASE
OF THE LLJ AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OCCUR. FFG IS AROUND 2.5"/3HR WHICH HAS BEEN MET
RATHER LOCALLY. THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PUT AREAS WELL
OVER FFG AND CAUSE PERHAPS LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
REST OF THE MORNING.
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST, BUT AS LEAST
FOR NOW THE TREND IS TO KEEP THE LINE DRIFTING SOUTH.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 39549775 38999733 38159751 37999788 38209854
38809837 39479817
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