941
AWUS01 KWNH 082121
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-090100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1063
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
520 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 082119Z - 090100Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER)
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL NEAR TERM IMPACTS IN THE WICHITA
METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR MRMS-DERIVED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES IN A
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS TO THE WEST OF SALINA. AS OF 2045Z, THIS
RELATIVELY COMPACT SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH AN
EMBEDDED MCV NEAR EMPORIA, BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
WERE OCCURRING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COMPLEX ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT WAS ORIENTED NNE TO SSW (MUCAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG). MEANWHILE, MUCAPE VALUES OVER EASTERN KS WERE NEAR
ZERO, COINCIDING WITH STRATIFORM RAIN AND NON-HAZARDOUS RAINFALL
INTENSITIES. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ELEVATED IN NATURE, ROOTED IN THE
800-700 MB LAYER PER RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION WITH
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SUPPORTING CONTINUED POCKETS OF
HOURLY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER).
AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MO, THE AXIS OF ELEVATED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, AT THE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. IT IS
UNCLEAR IF POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF THE CONVERGENCE AXIS (PER SHORT
TERM RAP FORECASTS) AND/OR MOVEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE AXIS INTO
WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR, THEREBY WEAKENING RAINFALL RATES,
BUT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BURSTS OF COOLING ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUGGESTIVE OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUING
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. WHILE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION
OF FORCING WILL SHIFT THE COMPLEX AWAY FROM THE STRONGER 850 MB
JET AXIS (25-35 KT) OVER CENTRAL KS, SUFFICIENT STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO
SUPPORT SOME BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF CELLS AS HEAVY RAIN
ADVANCES TOWARD THE S TO SSE. HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WICHITA METRO AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR ALONG WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN OK THROUGH 01Z.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38929791 38889751 38499675 37979649 37239611
36569606 36219624 36029720 36289853 37369896
38189828 38779814
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