931
AWUS01 KWNH 090113
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090600-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1066...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
912 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2025
CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN AREAS AFFECTED
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN OK INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 090106Z - 090600Z
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM
NORTHWESTERN OK INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z. HOURLY
RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER) IS EXPECTED WITH THE
THREAT POTENTIALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OK INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
COUPLE OF SLOW MOVING CELLS AND CYCLIC SUPERCELLS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 01Z SHOWED A
FEW CELLS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS WERE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK. MEANWHILE, AN NEW COLD POOL WAS
FORMING DUE TO EXPANDING CONVECTION FROM NORTHWESTERN OK INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT, WITH RAP FORECASTS
SHOWING 850 MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO ~40 KT BY 06Z, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OR A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WITH POTENTIAL PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW. WITH MEAN CELL MOTIONS FROM THE WNW TO N, THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
POTENTIAL MCS IF ORGANIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP AND ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS. WHILE MOISTURE IS MODEST/AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER, THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY (2000 TO 2500+ J/KG
MLCAPE VIA AMA AND DDC 00Z SOUNDINGS) WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CAPE WELL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS A
CONCERN, ASCENT ALONG THE DEVELOPING/ADVANCING COLD POOL COULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING TO ALLOW AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37000045 36949921 35969934 35329947 34409961
33950024 34110148 34680186 36280150
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