113
AWUS01 KWNH 091825
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100024-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1067
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 091824Z - 100024Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PERIODIC CELL MERGERS COULD LEAD TO 2-5" OF RAINFALL WITHIN
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA, WHICH WILL DRIVE AN INCREASING RISK OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED URBAN FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONT
AND OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF TAMPA BAY, WHICH EXTENDS
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
(MIA RECENTLY REPORTED A 2.18"/HR RAINFALL RATE) OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AMID PERSISTENT INSOLATION AND MOISTENING, POSSIBLY
COUPLED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE ASCENT FROM A STRENGTHENING JET-STREAK
TO THE NORTH.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES SUGGEST VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
INFLOW CHARACTERIZED BY 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 2.3-2.4" PWATS"
(NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR MFL AND KEY) HAS MATERIALIZED NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF 3"/HR
RAINFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS PER THE HREF AND REFS.
WHILE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS
SHOULD SUPPORT LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL LONGEVITY, CELL MERGERS ALONG
RESULTING OUTFLOWS AND THE SEA BREEZE COULD FAVOR SPOTS OF 2-5"
WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. ACCORDINGLY, EXPECT AN INCREASING
RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN SENSITIVE URBAN
AREAS ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
ASHERMAN
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 27378021 27047991 26397992 25808001 25328023
25398066 25808059 26498038 27088043 27338037
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