884
AWUS01 KWNH 091905
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1068
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 091902Z - 100000Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A LOW WEST OF
FORT MYERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATING HEAVY RAIN RAISES ISOLATED RISK FOR URBAN FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 150
MILES OR SO WEST OF FT. MYERS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW FL COAST. RECENT
HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KTBW OF UP TO 3" ARE A REASONABLE
MAXIMUM THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH 2.4" PW 3000 J/KG SBCAPE IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON
THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS SUPPORT LIMIT INDIVIDUAL CELL LONGEVITY,
BUT ORGANIZATION FROM FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND CONVERGENCE AT
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW BANDS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND SHIFT INLAND FROM PORT CHARLOTTE SOUTH THROUGH NAPLES
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL OF 2-6" IS LIKELY WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA WHICH CAUSES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
SENSITIVE URBAN AREAS.
CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THE DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG A BOUNDARY IN THIS EXTREME MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 27168221 27108163 26058128 25748138 25688166
26098228 26968271
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