771
AWUS01 KWNH 170111
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-170510-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1096
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 170110Z - 170510Z
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS - PERHAPS THROUGH 05Z/11P MDT.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EARNEST AND MOVED
SLOWLY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 01Z,
RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM NEAR SILVER CITY TO NEAR
ALAMOGORDO, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR TUSCON.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT (RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG) AND PW VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 1-1.2 INCH. ADDITIONALLY, STEERING FLOW/KINEMATICS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOW- AND ERRATICALLY MOVING STORMS, WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF PROPAGATION NOTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SPOTS OF 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN LOCAL FFG AND POSE A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
THE EXTENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS OR SO. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED
OVERTURNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LESSENING OF BOTH CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z/11P MDT.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 33950560 32630478 31970675 31360842 31651198
32151226 33651008
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