912
AWUS01 KWNH 071501
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1166
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IND...NORTHERN & CENTRAL
KY...SOUTHERN OH...FAR WESTERN WV
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 071500Z - 072000Z
SUMMARY...PROLONGED MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTED WITHIN A LONG TRAINING PROFILE INTO CONFLUENT
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLONE POSE LOCALIZED 2-3"
TOTALS OVER 3-6HRS SUGGESTING SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS THROUGH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATING SW TO NE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A NEW TRIPLE POINT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR OWB
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO BACK THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER MOISTURE
FLUX FLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME SOLID CONVERGENCE TO TAP THE
REMAINING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR OF 250-500 J/KG ALONG AND
DOWNSTREAM IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE TAKEN RESIDENCE IN THE OHIO VALLEY, PROPER. SOLID DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CONFLUENCE STREAM REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AT 1.75-2.1" OF TOTAL PWATS THOUGH CIRA LPW DENOTES THE
ELONGATION/SHEARING OF THE MOISUTRE AXIS AS THE SURFACE TO 850
REMAINS UPSTREAM NEAR THE LOW AND SLOW ADVANCING COLD FRONT, BUT
700-500MB SLUG HAS SHIFTED TOWARD NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO.
STILL THE OBLIQUE ASCENT ACROSS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY IS FURTHER
ELONGATING THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT HAS MODERATE SHIELD PRECIP
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING FURTHER TO THE WEST.
THE FLUX IS ENHANCING SHOWERS TO .25-.75"/HR AND GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE FURTHER STRENGTHENS TRAINING
PROFILE AND AXIS OF 2" MAY RESULT PRIOR TO EVEN THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER FLUX/DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF 1.25-1.5"/HR
THOUGH AVERAGE MORE CLOSE TO 1" FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN 2-3.5" TOTALS WITH A LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
LOCALIZED 4" TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THE FLASHY, RAPID RISE CONCERNS ARE LOW AND LIKELY VERY ISOLATED
BUT PROLONGED MODERATE RAINFALL, FFG VALUES IN THE 3-6HR RANGE ARE
STILL ABOUT 2-3" ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE/TRAINING AXIS. THIS STILL
SUGGESTS EXCEEDANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, SUCH AS URBAN
SETTINGS.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39578261 39348191 38818177 38358197 37888263
37568380 37178594 36918765 37568756 38218703
38748564 39258429 39468337
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