238
AWUS01 KWNH 240609
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-241200-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1204
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJ SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 240610Z - 241200Z
SUMMARY...DEEPENING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WAA WILL PROVIDE
CONSISTENT ASCENT FOR SLOW FORWARD PROPAGATING/BACK-BUILDING
UPDRAFTS WITH 1.5"/HR RATES RESULTING IN LOCALIZED 2-3" TOTALS AND
POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...CIRA SURFACE TO 700MB LPW LAYERS DEPICT SOUTH TO
NORTH PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH TEXAS. A WELL DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT/THETA-E GRADIENT IS
DENOTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-35 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK
BEFORE ANGLING WESTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TOWARD WEAK SURFACE
WAVE IN SW KS. GOES-E WV SUITE SHOWS STRONG CLOSED LOW CONTINUING
TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS; YET THE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS
ANCHORED BY EQUALLY STRONG DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SUCH, THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME
WHICH TOTALS TO 1.5 INCREASING TO 1.75" OF TOTAL PWAT IS CORRALLED
WELL AND FLUXED ON 40KT 850MB FLOW.
CIRA LPW 700-500MB SHOWS SLUG OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 300MB JET STREAK
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT DIVERGENCE
AREA ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK. THE STRONG
VEERING THROUGH THIS 850-700MB LAYER IS MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. THE STRONG WAA THROUGH THE
LAYER IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEFORE PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED CONVERGENCE TO TAP THE UNSTABLE AIR
FOR VERTICAL ASCENT. AS SUCH, SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OK,
INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN KS AT DIFFERENT VERTICAL LAYERS (LOWER
FURTHER WEST). DOWNSTREAM FLOW SUPPORTS CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE
EAST, BUT WITH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND UNSTABLE AIR UPSTREAM,
BACKBUILDING WILL RESULT IN SLOWING EFFECTIVE CELL/CLUSTER MOTIONS
AND INCREASING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS. RATES OF 1.5"/HR ARE
MORE LIKELY, THOUGH VERY TRANSIENT UPTICK TOWARD 2"/HR REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED WITHIN THE LARGER WAA FLOW REGIME. AS SUCH,
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MOTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN DUE TO THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST; SCATTERED STREAKS OF 2-3"+
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. 00Z HREF EMPOWERED BY THE NAM-NEST AND ARW
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST EVEN A SPOT OF 4" IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY WITH 10-15% OF 5"/6HR BY 12Z OVER EAST-CENTRAL OK.
IN GENERAL, FFG VALUES ARE HIGH (2"+/HR, 3-4"/3HRS) AND RATES ARE
NOT TOO EXTREME, THAT SLOW INFILTRATION IS MORE LIKELY; HOWEVER,
AN ISOLATED INCIDENT OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 4-6 HRS. WITH THAT STATED, THIS IS JUST THE START OF
PROLONGED MODERATE WAA ASCENT AND REPEATING ROUNDS LIKELY TO SET
THE STAGE FOR LATER FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37709742 37649652 36819579 36029535 35239552
34709607 34459724 34929812 35479839 36199802
36659783 37159777
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