852
AWUS01 KWNH 240641
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 240640Z - 241100Z
SUMMARY...SHORT QLCS SEGMENT PROPAGATING INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. LOW-END INCIDENT OR TWO OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN RATES OF 1.75"/HR AND TOTALS TO 3".
DISCUSSION...RECENT KFWS AND GOES-E 10.3UM HAVE SHOWN A RECENT
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS COOLING NEAR
-70C OCCASIONALLY WITH MATURE WEAK QLCS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. THE COMPLEX HAS HISTORY OF LOCALIZED 2"+
TOTALS UPSTREAM BUT IS MOVING INTO A MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX/INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF STRONG/REINFORCED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
OUTFLOW IS STARTING TO REACH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE NOSE OF
SURFACE TDS IN THE 60S, THAT ARE SOURCED WITH EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE LOW 70S UPSTREAM BY A FEW HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
INFLECTION OF THE MESO-LOW ALONG THE LINE IS HELPING TO LOCALLY
STRENGTHEN THE INFLUX OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IN THAT STREAM WEST OF
THE FRONT.
ALOFT, GOES-E WV SUITE SHOWS THE CLUSTER IS AT THE HARD CYCLONIC
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING SOLID DIFFLUENCE IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET COINCIDENT AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLUSTER HELPING
TO FURTHER EVACUATE OUTFLOW TO MAINTAIN STRONGER UPDRAFT STRENGTH
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TOTAL PWATS OF 1.5" AND EXPECTED ISALLOBARIC
INFLOW SHOULD PROVIDE RATES OF 1.75", OCCASIONALLY UP TO 2" AND
WITH STILL SOME UPSTREAM POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-TERM TRAINING OF AN
HOUR OR TWO, LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3" REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RATES AND SURFACE ROOTED CELLS IN PROXIMITY TO
URBAN LOCALES OF NORTH TEXAS AND INCIDENT OF LOW-END FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CELLS
CROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO MUCH DRIER (UPPER 40S TD)
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 33319721 33289635 32929591 32469584 31979628
31959723 32249820 32649845 33029825 33229785
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