665
AWUS01 KWNH 241545
FFGMPD
OKZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241544Z - 242100Z
SUMMARY...AN AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CELL-TRAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL DRIVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE URBANIZED
LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING GOES-E VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY OVER AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
TO NORTHEAST OK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY EXHIBITING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS, WITH SOME TOPS TO NEAR -70C, AND THIS IS
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT.
MESOSCALE ANALYSES SHOW THE CONVECTION ELEVATED IN NATURE
NORTHEAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN OK DOWN INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 30+ KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS OVERRUNNING THIS BOUNDARY AT A LARGELY ORTHOGONAL
ANGLE AND IS FAVORING A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A FAVORABLY DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT GIVEN
FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER-JET DYNAMICS RIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN OK. COINCIDING THE WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FORCING IS THE POOLING OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF 1000+ J/KG.
POSITIVE 3-HOUR MUCAPE DIFFERENTIALS ACROSS CENTRAL OK JUXTAPOSED
AGAINST NEGATIVE 3-HOUR MUCAPE DIFFERENTIALS OVER NORTHEAST OK
SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT.
THIS WILL FAVOR STRONGER ASCENT VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ENHANCED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH THE CONVECTION AND
SUPPORT A FURTHER UPTICK IN RAINFALL RATES.
RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH UP TO 1.5+ INCHES/HOUR GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, AND WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SOME
BACKBUILDING AND CELL-TRAINING OF THE CONVECTION, SOME RAINFALL,
TOTALS OVER GOING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MAY REACH 2 TO 4+ INCHES.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL MITIGATE THE RUNOFF
POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR-TERM, BUT AS SOME OF THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES PERSIST, OR GET INTO A MORE URBANIZED SETTING, THERE MAY BE
A CONCERN EVENTUALLY FOR ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36789745 36719576 36429480 35569461 35119574
35289738 35679858 36129884 36529849
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