533
AWUS01 KWNH 241851
FFGMPD
TXZ000-250030-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1207
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241850Z - 250030Z
SUMMARY...ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX THROUGH
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY.
THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OUT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AS MUCH AS 1500+ J/KG, AND
WITH ENHANCED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50+ KTS, CONVECTION IS
QUICKLY ATTAINING A SUBSTANTIAL LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION WITH
MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NOTED.
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL YIELD LOCALIZED
AREAS OF MLCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL INCLUDE A MUCH GREATER LEVEL OF INSTABILITY POOLING UP ACROSS
THE TX BIG COUNTRY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH PWS
REACHING 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40+ KTS.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD HELP FACILITATE RAINFALL RATES
INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CELLS.
SOME CELL-MERGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE FOOTPRINT TAKES ON A LARGER SCALE QLCS
EVOLUTION BY THIS EVENING. UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION WILL BE
STRONGLY CONNECTED TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG JET-AIDED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND THE ALREADY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENTS.
EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS TO POSSIBLE
WHERE ANY CELL-MERGER AND CELL-TRAINING ACTIVITY OCCURS GOING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY DRIVE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AND ESPECIALLY IN AROUND THE
MORE URBANIZED AREAS.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34259948 34039855 33179816 32159877 31250020
30500214 30210368 30480421 31120423 31850307
32740187 33950035
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