255
AWUS01 KWNH 250722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1211
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 250720Z - 251300Z
SUMMARY...FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FOR 2"+/HR
RATES LOCALLY. WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF 2-4" TOTALS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HOUSTON
METROPLEX.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS OLDER INITIAL QLCS
ACROSS EASTERN TX HAS STARTED TO SLOW WITH FRACTURED, BUT STILL
BROAD UPDRAFTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE LINE
FROM LEON TO HENDERSON COUNTY, AS THE MAIN FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
DPVA CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE OBLIQUE AS THAT WAVE EXITS ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OK. THE UPSTREAM TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE HEAT OF
TEXAS COMBINED WITH STRONG MESO-HIGH/COLD POOL IS PROPAGATING THE
SECONDARY SQUALL LINE QUICKLY EASTWARD STARTING TO ALIGN SSW TO
NNE WITH THE INITIAL LINE. SOLID SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE INFLOW,
VEERS WITH HEIGHT TO 850MB BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT WITH
STRONG 30KTS AND 30-45 DEGREES OF DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE IS ALSO MUCH DEEPER THOUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TDS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERALL PWATS OVER 1.75".
AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL WAVE EXITS AND CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTHWARD, THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND
FORWARD SPEEDS ARE TO SLOW WITH STEERING FLOW SHIFTING FROM SW
TOWARD SSW. THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL RAINFALL DURATION IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STRENGTH OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF THE GULF ARE ALSO INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S PROVIDING FURTHER BUOYANCY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATES
WILL INCREASE TO 2"/HR AND DEVELOPING STREAMERS OFF THE GULF,
LOCALIZED MAXIMA/TRANSIENT MERGERS MAY FURTHER ENHANCED HIGHLY
LOCALIZED TROPICAL/DEEPER WARM CLOUD PROCESSES TO SUPPORT FOCUSED
2.25-2.5"/HR TOTALS. THE LINE WILL STILL BE FORWARD PROPAGATING
AND SHOULD LIMIT SOME OF THE DURATION BUT STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
INCIDENTS OF 2-4" TOTALS WHILE AN ISOLATED 5" NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN 00Z HREF PROBABILITY OF 20-25%
ACROSS FAR SE TX THROUGH 15Z; THOUGH 3" PROBABILITY REACH 70-90%
ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE HOUSTON METRO PROVIDING SOME
CONFIDENCE FOR LOCALIZED POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INCIDENTS THROUGH
DAY-BREAK.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32269484 31969414 31429380 30819371 29789401
29199489 28609569 28629623 29219645 29909640
30369634 31479614 31899590 32159556
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