381
FXHW01 KWNH 270742
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
VALID 00Z TUE 28 OCT 2025 - 00Z TUE 04 NOV 2025
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY/MONDAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN NORTH/OVER HAWAII.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE AND A POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW (AS
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND CMC) WEST OF THE STATE. IF THIS SCENARIO
HAPPENS, IT COULD DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WITH
INCREASED RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ISLANDS,
BUT VERY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOW PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CUT OFF LOW BUT DOES SUGGEST A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE STATE WITH GUSTY WINDS. WPC PREFERS A BLEND
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT.
SANTORELLI
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