706
FXHW01 KWNH 100815
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
VALID 00Z TUE 11 NOV 2025 - 00Z TUE 18 NOV 2025
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERY
CONDITIONS INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. AN UPTICK IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY BY MID WEEK
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER
POTENTIAL. GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND A SHALLOW INVERSION WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL RATES AND REDUCE THE
RISK OF ANY FLOODING.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF AN UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
LOW ALOFT TRIES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK, AND
ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT MAY PERSIST TO MAINLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS
ABLE TO OCCUR COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT, EITHER ON THE EAST SIDE OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, COULD INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS,
BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED RAINFALL THREAT AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
CHENARD
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