625
FXHW01 KWNH 140729
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 15 NOV 2025 - 00Z SAT 22 NOV 2025
EXPECT ISLAND TRADES TO WEAKEN A BIT TO MORE MODERATE TO BREEZY
LEVELS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SLOWLY LOSES INFLUENCE.
BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAIN SOME GUIDANCE SIGNALS FOR
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTH TOWARD THE STATE AS
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT YIELDS SOUTHERLY FLOW. RECENT
GFS RUNS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE OVERALL BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGHING, LEADING TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS COMING INTO THE STATE
BY MONDAY AND LASTING INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS ALSO RELATES
TO A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, WHICH RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE
APPROACHING THE STATE BY MIDWEEK. RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO
FAVORED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE STATE, BUT WITH
MORE MUTED SURFACE TROUGHING, MORE TYPICAL TRADES AND LESS
FRONTAL APPROACH AND MOISTURE INFLUX. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND HAVE SOME INCREASED QPF AND MOISTURE ANOMALIES, BUT ARE MORE
MUTED THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES, FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSER
TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALBEIT WITH UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FLOW
AMPLITUDE AT LOWER LATITUDES LENDING PREFERENCE FOR A WET PERIOD.
SCHICHTEL
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