619
AWUS01 KWNH 241649
FFGMPD
TXZ000-242048-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1246
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS, INCLUDING HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 241648Z - 242048Z
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN. AREAS OF 1 INCH/HR RATES HAVE BEEN
ESTIMATED. THESE RATES SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, POSSIBLY PROMPTING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS LOCATED WEST OF HOUSTON METRO OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. THESE CELLS ARE EXHIBITING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS EVIDENCED BY ROBUST LIGHTNING CONCENTRATIONS AND COOLING CLOUD
TOPS VIA SATELLITE. THE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 3500 J/KG SBCAPE AND 1.6 INCH PW VALUES, BOTH
SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FURTHERMORE, THE CELLS ARE IN A
VERY WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBTLE ASCENT ALOFT PASSING
OVER THE AREA FROM WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES AHEAD OF A LARGER-SCALE
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. EACH OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
LONGEVITY AND MODEST INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
RAIN RATES OF 1-1.5 INCH/HR WERE ESTIMATED IN A COUPLE SPOTS
BENEATH THE CONVECTION RECENTLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE AREAS OF 1.5
INCH/HR RAIN RATES OVER TIME, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
PERHAPS NORTHERN SIDES OF HOUSTON METRO. ADDITIONALLY, THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA MAY ENCOURAGE INSTANCES OF
RIGHT-MOVING CELLS -AND- MERGERS, FURTHER ENHANCING LOCAL FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. DIRECT IMPACTS TO HOUSTON METRO ARE STILL IN
QUESTION CURRENTLY, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
MATURE. AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31379478 31199388 30469384 29729427 29079610
28759708 30029731 30839687 31179619
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