557
FXHW01 KWNH 260816
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
VALID 00Z SAT 27 DEC 2025 - 00Z SAT 03 JAN 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY-APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CLIPS THE ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES
THE THE COL REGION ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VEERING OF THE TRADES (MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY) AS WELL AS AN UPTICK IN PW VALUES (AOA 1.5") THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DETAIL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THE NEW YEAR, AS
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE
RETURN OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL WITH MORE TRADITIONAL E-NE TRADES. REGARDLESS,
SHOWER CHANCES (ESPECIALLY OVER WINDWARD SLOPES) WILL DIMINISH BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AGAIN EARLIER (BY NEW YEAR'S DAY) PER THE
ECMWF.
HURLEY
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