896
FXHW01 KWNH 270822
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
VALID 00Z SUN 28 DEC 2025 - 00Z SUN 04 JAN 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH CENTER NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST, AS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, AN APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WEST OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY, THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VEERING OF THE TRADES (MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY) AS WELL AS AN UPTICK IN PW VALUES (AOA 1.5") THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST NEW YEARS EVE. THE GFS MAINTAINS POSITIVE
PW ANOMALIES (+1 TO +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS) THROUGH THEN END OF
NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT FASTER (BY A DAY OR
SO) WITH THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER REGIME RETURNING BY NYD
OR NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE MORE TRADITIONAL E-NE TRADES. THE
GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE HOWEVER, WITH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT AS PRONOUNCED COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, SHOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES, WILL REMAIN MORE ELEVATED COMPARED TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HURLEY
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