141
FXHW01 KWNH 310809
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VALID 00Z THU 01 JAN 2026 - 00Z THU 08 JAN 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BOTH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS
DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THAT FRONT
WILL APPROACH KAUAI ON NEW YEAR'S MORNING THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE ALONG THE CHAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE
ANYTHING BUT STRONG, BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY WITH IT TO PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY ON ALL SIDES OF THE ISLANDS AS IT
SWEEPS DOWN THE CHAIN. THE LAST OF THE ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING, AS THE REST OF IT STALLS OUT A BIT SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL STALL BECAUSE A BROAD, ROBUST, AND STRONG
LOW WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST, APPROACHING
KAUAI FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF HAWAII
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LION'S SHARE OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CHAIN.
NONETHELESS, THE ISLANDS WON'T ESCAPE UNSCATHED. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CHAIN AS THE
BUILDING HIGH BEYOND IT PUSHES THE RAIN SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME,
ALL AREAS ON ALL THE ISLANDS WILL AT LEAST HAVE SOME CHANCE OF
PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT LESS CERTAIN, BUT IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH HAVING FIRMLY REESTABLISHED ITSELF
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII SHOULD RETURN THE CHAIN TO A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN OF THE NORTHEAST TRADES TRANSPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
WEGMAN
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