144
FXHW01 KWNH 010803
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 02 JAN 2026 - 00Z FRI 09 JAN 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD REMAINS VERY SIMILAR AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SLOW-MOVING, SHEARING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH
ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE CHAIN, RESULTING IN OFF-AND-ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG ALL OF THE ISLANDS, WITH THE BIG ISLAND LIKELY TO
BE THE ONE LARGELY MISSED. PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS IS POSSIBLE, BUT MOST LIKELY FROM MAUI WEST. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, THE FRONT SHOULD BE LARGELY CLEAR OF THE ISLANDS, BUT SOME
RAINS INTO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE. A
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DYING FRONT
AND AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST REPRESENTS THE
LARGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. PRIOR DAYS'
FORECASTS INCLUDED THE LOW REMAINING TOO FAR WEST TO PRODUCE MUCH
PRECIPITATION INTO THE ISLANDS, KEEPING HAWAII LARGELY DRY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER NOW ADVANCES THE LOW'S RAIN SHIELD
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST. THUS, NOW EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, REACHING AS FAR EAST AS
MAUI DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE LOW WILL
KEEP THE TYPICAL WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND IN STEADY
RAINFALL, WHILE ALL SHORES WEST OF MAUI WILL SEE STEADY RAIN FROM
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. IN FACT THE EC SUGGESTS THAT A NEARLY
STATIONARY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PARK OVER OR NEAR KAUAI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING RAINS, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES
OF THE ISLAND WHICH AREN'T AS USED TO HEAVY RAIN RATES.
ON MONDAY, THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. NONETHELESS, LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WELL NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER ACROSS HAWAII. THIS WILL
RETURN ALL OF THE ISLANDS BACK TO A TRANQUIL, COMMON WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TRADES LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE
AND DIURNAL MAUKA SHOWERS, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL OR OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEGMAN
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