293
FXHW01 KWNH 050904
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
VALID 00Z TUE 06 JAN 2026 - 00Z TUE 13 JAN 2026
THE KONA LOW INITIALLY WEST OF THE ISLANDS ALONG APPROXIMATELY
167W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WEAKEN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 0000 UTC TUE TO 12Z WED WHEN
ANOMALOUS PW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX VALUES...2 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF THE ISLANDS. PW
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER 1200 UTC WED TO 12Z
SAT BUT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD SUPPORT LESSENING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIP AFTER 12Z WED WILL
BE ACROSS KAUAI TO OAHU WHERE THE 2 TO 3 PW ANOMALY AXIS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 0000 UTC SAT.
AN INITIAL FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS 0000 UTC
FRI TO 0000 UTC SAT. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF MOVING EAST FROM
THE DATELINE AFTER 0000 UTC THU WILL HELP PUSH A MUCH STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM APPROXIMATELY
0600 UTC MON TO 12Z TUE, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CHANCES OF
FRONTAL PRECIP.
ORAVEC
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