492
FXHW01 KWNH 080908
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 09 JAN 2026 - 00Z FRI 16 JAN 2026
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND PUSHES EAST AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
PW VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRI FROM A
COMBINATION OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT KONA LOW AND
MOISTURE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT WITH CONTINUED WEAKER THAN
AVERAGE TRADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND, MON INTO EARLY TUE IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF HAWAII
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED FRONTAL PRECIP BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MON INTO TUE WITH SOME
APPRECIABLE VALUES SHOWING UP IN THE MEANS AND GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC.
TRADES SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER FRONT TUE
AND THEN VEER TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WED AS YET
ANOTHER UPSTREAM FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PAC.
THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY STRONG AND REINVIGORATE A LINE
OF ENHANCED CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL WARRANT MORE TIME TO ASSESS SPECIFICS,
BUT THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
7+ DAYS.
ORAVEC/KLEEBAUER
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