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FXHW01 KWNH 090901
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 10 JAN 2026 - 00Z SAT 17 JAN 2026
A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN...WHICH ALLOWS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND DURING THE
UPCOMING EVENING. THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD HELP DRIVE A STRONGER SURFACE BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER AND BE IN
PLACE FOR THE ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY OF THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL AGREEMENT TENDED TO BE VERY GOOD UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF BOTH PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES AND
PATTERN EVOLUTION OF THE MASS FIELDS. AT THAT POINT THE GFS
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AS SHOWN BY THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES...TENDED
TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THE AGREEMENT IS STILL
DECENT. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL FOR THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES
SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY
AND THEN VEER TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS.
BANN
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