616
AWUS01 KWNH 100147
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100545-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0010
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL AL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 100145Z - 100545Z
SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF CELL TRAINING WILL
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MANY LOCALES WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST, THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5
INCHES AREAS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES-E LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL
DEVELOPED, RATHER EXPANSIVE WEST-TO-EAST WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB)
OF HIGHER/COLDER CLOUD TOPS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN TX AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY. ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES-HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE EASTERN FLANK IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BOOST IN THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AS 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER DEEP-LAYER CAPE (1000-1500+
J/KG) WILL ALSO NUDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL AL, COINCIDING WITH PWS CLIMBING
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0" IN THE EXPANDING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. MULTIPLE, QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WILL TEND
TO TRAIN WITHIN THIS NARROWING CORRIDOR OF MORE OPTIMAL
INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE PW. THE MESOSCALE (CAM) GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED A BIT HANDLING THE CURRENT SETUP, COMPARED TO THE RADAR
MOSAIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RECENT HRRR AND RRFS RUNS HAVE
CAUGHT UP A BIT HOWEVER. HIGH RES ENSEMBLES (HREF AND RRFS)
PROBABILITIES OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2" ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN REALITY (ESPECIALLY THE 2"/HR PROBABILITIES),
INDICATIVE THAT THE EVENT MAY ONLY JUST NOW BE GETTING BETTER
HANDLED BY THE GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOW THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH OF BHM THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST, HOWEVER WITH
NOTABLY LOWER FFG OVER NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN AL, IT WOULD NOT
TAKE AS MUCH RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
HURLEY
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 34198699 32868611 31658789 30709029 31699073
33308893
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