437
AWUS01 KWNH 100444
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0011
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1142 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TO EAST TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 100445Z - 101000Z
SUMMARY...STRENGTHENING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 1.5"/HR AND LOCALIZED 2-3" TOTALS GIVEN
SOME SHORT-DURATION TRAINING POTENTIAL FOR FLANKING CELL
DEVELOPMENT. GREATER SOIL SATURATION/LOWER FFG, NORTH AND
PROXIMITY TO HOUSTON METRO/URBAN RUNOFF TO SOUTH POSE LOCALIZED
POSSIBLE INCIDENT OR TWO FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND 10.3UM IR LOOP DEPICT A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR VICTORIA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
KOCH. EAST OF THE LOW, A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES
NEAR I-20 AND RECENTLY SATURATED UPPER SOIL PROFILES GIVEN BROAD
1-2" TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TDS WITH
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE VALUES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH SPOTS OF 2000 J/KG NEAR THE
UPPER TX COAST. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THOUGH BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE
ASCENT IS PROVIDING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SUPPORTING THE
SLIGHTLY BACKED AND 20-25KTS OF LOW-LEVEL JET FLOW TO OBLIQUELY
INTERSECT THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY, THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
REMAINS THOUGH 700MB WITH OVER 1.5" AND SPOTS NEARING 1.75" WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. THIS RESULTS IN SOLID MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AND SOLID INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN/EXPAND THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THOUGH LIKELY STILL IN A SCATTERED NATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FLUX CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING MODERATELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH 1.5-1.75"/HR RATES. FORWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TOWARD 2-3" STREAKS OF RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AS THE CORE OF THE
JET (AND THEREFORE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE) SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DIRECT CIRCULATION ALLOWS FOR FASTER PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
OVERALL TOTALS ARE NOT A TREMENDOUS CONCERN ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN, WITH A SOLID EXCEPTION OF THE HYDROPHOBIC URBAN/SUBURBAN
CORRIDOR OF HOUSTON. THE SHEER RATES WOULD BE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AND EVEN SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED 2"/HR RATES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PINEY WOODS OF E TX INTO NORTHERN LA,
THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL LOCALLY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF,
AND COMPROMISED FFG VALUES OF LESS THAN 2"/HR AND 3"/3HR REMAIN
CAPABLE OF BEING EXCEEDED AGAIN. AS SUCH, A FEW INCIDENTS OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32959190 32879118 32299104 31379165 30549283
29959426 29399553 29649617 30229584 30649558
31419478 32189422 32789339 32919271
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