013
FXHW01 KWNH 110853
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VALID 00Z MON 12 JAN 2026 - 00Z MON 19 JAN 2026
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF OF ASIA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL
REACH A MEAN TROUGH POSITION ABOUT 170W BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED
NORTHWARD UPON ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SUBTROPICS
BEFORE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IS SOME
10 DEGREES WEST OF WHERE IT WAS FORECAST 24 HRS AGO...WHICH
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARIES REACH
AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS HAWAII BY LATE IN
THE COMING WEEK.
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUED TO BE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
15/12Z...AT WHICH TIME THE ECMWF SPINS UP A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
ABOUT 30N/150W THURSDAY THAT THEN DRIFTS NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE
IMPACT IT HAS ON THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA...AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLES...PREFER
A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AFTER 17/00Z. OTHERWISE...A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
BLEND OFFERS A WORKABLE SOLUTION.
BANN
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