582
FXHW01 KWNH 130744
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VALID 00Z WED 14 JAN 2026 - 00Z WED 21 JAN 2026
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII WILL UNDERGO AN OCCLUSION
WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
BY WEDNESDAY GENERATING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE ISLANDS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL FADE AS IT MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE LONGITUDE OF THE BIG ISLAND LEADING TO A PERIOD OF
WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN THE PATTERN BY LATE-WEEKEND WITH A TANDEM
OF LOW PRESSURES SHOWING UP IN THE MEANS, BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOW PROGRESSIONS LEND TO DIFFERENT RESULTS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. PATTERN IS SEMI-ACTIVE OVERALL WITH EVEN THE WEAK
TRADES LIKELY TO SETUP SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
KLEEBAUER
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