640
FXHW01 KWNH 150730
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 16 JAN 2026 - 00Z FRI 23 JAN 2026
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ADVANCEMENT LIKELY TO HIT A ROADBLOCK
AROUND THE ISLAND OF MAUI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WE SEE THE EXPECTED SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN FROM FRONTOLYSIS TO MORE OF A TRADITIONAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE MATERIALIZES TO THE NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
DECAYING FRONT.
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL EFFECT MORE OF THE TRADITIONAL
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AS EASTERLY FLOW (E/NE) DOMINATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING AN OCCLUSION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
A SECOND FRONTAL PROGRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THERE'S A BIT OF DISCREPANCY ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
PATTERN ON GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE FOR THIS LEAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WITH AGREEMENT IN THE MEANS OF ALL 3 MAJOR GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, AS WELL AS THE THE AIFS/AIGFS ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS.
KLEEBAUER
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