891
FXUS02 KWNH 160801
PREEPD
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 19 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 23 2026
...DEEP TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CHILLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH THE LATTER CAUSING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THAT COULD BECOME HEAVY. THE TROUGH MAY BROADEN WESTWARD MID-
AND LATE WEEK. GULF MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
TO MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGING ATOP
THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY THE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT
SHALLOWER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, BUT SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
ARISE WITH SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH AND THUS ITS DEPTH GOING
FORWARD. 00Z MODELS ARE GENERALLY DEEPER WITH TROUGHING IN THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY THAN THE 12/18Z MODEL CYCLE THAT WAS AVAILABLE FOR
PORTIONS OF TONIGHT'S FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO RELATED ENERGIES
COMING IN FROM THE WEST, POSSIBLY BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. TO THE SOUTH, A CLOSED LOW SHOWS SOME SPREAD COMING
TOWARD CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY WITH THE OLDER 12/18Z MODELS. THE GFS
RUNS WERE ALONE IN SHOWING ENERGY COMING QUICKLY TOWARD AND OVER
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP MODELS STALLED
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT WITH THE
GFS SLOWING DOWN AND THE EC/CMC FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM, 12/18Z MODELS MOSTLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CAUSING TROUGHING TO DIG THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ASIDE FROM THE AIFS THAT SHOWED A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY FOR LESS
DIGGING. THE PHASING OF ALL THIS WILL MATTER FOR THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
HOW MODELS TREND.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL BLEND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH INCREASING PROPORTIONS OF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HALF DAY 6
AND MORE DAY 7 GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SEVERAL DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW ARE IN STORE
WITH THE MEAN WESTERLY WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS GENERALLY LIKELY
MONDAY-TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH MORE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD EVENTUALLY PILE UP TO 1-2 FEET IN
WESTERN NEW YORK DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY GULF
MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN PARTICULAR AND POOL
ALONG A FRONT. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH WHEN ANY NOTABLE
RAIN MAY FORM, SO PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA
THERE FOR DAY 5/TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME RAIN COULD SPREAD EAST OR NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY,
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE UNCERTAIN PATTERN
ALOFT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVES AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN STAYING BELOW 0 IN SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH IS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MEET HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS FOR COLD WEATHER.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MARCH EAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER INTO LATE WEEK, BUT THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TIER
MAY MODERATE AS WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST
SPREAD EASTWARD.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page