281
FXHW01 KWNH 160911
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 17 JAN 2026 - 00Z SAT 24 JAN 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, LIKELY BRINING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL THREAT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE MOMENT INDICATES THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN AND STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A WAVE OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY SATURDAY. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND THESE
DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE, BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS, ECMWF, AIFS AND
AIGFS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THIS INCREASING RAINFALL THREAT,
ALTHOUGH DETAILS ON THE MAGNITUDE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE EVENT
REMAIN LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LONG LEAD TIME.
CHENARD
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