397
FXHW01 KWNH 170918
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 18 JAN 2026 - 00Z SUN 25 JAN 2026
BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND
ACROSS THE STATE WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATING. BY MONDAY
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND AN UPTICK IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT BOTH THE AIGFS AND EC AIFS
REMAIN STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE BROADER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A CLOSED LOW
SLOWING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND, WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH THESE DETAILS RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
RESULTING FROM THIS SETUP LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHENARD
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