199
FXHW01 KWNH 180931
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
VALID 00Z MON 19 JAN 2026 - 00Z MON 26 JAN 2026
AFTER A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND MORE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ISLANDS, HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN
RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BROADER PATTERN FEATURES A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PRETTY WEAK BY
THIS POINT, BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED MOISTURE LINGERING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE
DETAILS, BUT SOME RAIN RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY IN THIS SETUP, BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE GREATEST
CHANCES ARE REMAINS UNCLEAR. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NOT REALLY
MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME EARLIER MODEL RUNS DID DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW SPINNING UP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, AND WHILE
MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
CHENARD
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