573
FXHW01 KWNH 280830
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VALID 00Z THU 29 JAN 2026 - 00Z THU 05 FEB 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DECAY AS
IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT THE BRIEF RETURN OF
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. BY SUNDAY, SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MONDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A STRONGER
COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE, LIKELY REACHING THE EASTERN ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED REGARDING
TIMING AND INDICATE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY FUEL SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PEREIRA
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